San Jose St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	314.0
Current RPI:	314
Expected SOS:	116
Current SOS:	116
Current Record:	3-26
Expected Record:	3-26
Current Conf Record:	1-18
Expected Conf Record:	1-18
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-7
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	290
Expected OOC SOS:	197

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
3-26	314.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for San Jose St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	64-81	L	0%
11-16	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	81-69	L	0%
11-19	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	61-79	L	0%
11-22	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	62-54	W	100%
11-29	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	A	85-79	L	0%
12-2	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	76-58	L	0%
12-5	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	58-56	L	0%
12-9	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	64-55	L	0%
12-17	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	62-76	L	0%
12-21	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	63-75	W	100%
12-27	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	86-72	L	0%
12-30	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	52-59	L	0%
1-3	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	76-82	L	0%
1-6	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	80-47	L	0%
1-9	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	85-49	L	0%
1-13	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	71-78	L	0%
1-17	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	54-71	L	0%
1-24	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	94-71	L	0%
1-27	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	86-90	L	0%
1-31	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	76-67	L	0%
2-3	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	68-71	L	0%
2-10	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	90-79	L	0%
2-14	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	57-77	L	0%
2-17	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	89-75	L	0%
2-21	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	80-67	L	0%
2-24	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	59-71	L	0%
2-28	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	64-62	W	100%
3-3	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	83-61	L	0%
3-7	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	N	74-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

San Jose St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

San Jose St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against San Jose St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
San Jose St.	MWC	26.35	26.35	9.49	9.49	-21.35	-21.35
Wyoming	MWC	6.01	6.01	55.17	55.17	0.62	0.62
New Mexico	MWC	4.46	4.46	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
Nevada	MWC	4.43	4.43	78.12	78.12	2.49	2.49
San Diego St.	MWC	4.43	4.43	65.52	65.52	1.37	1.37
Utah St.	MWC	4.40	4.40	48.39	48.39	-0.14	-0.14
UNLV	MWC	4.38	4.38	58.06	58.06	0.71	0.71
Colorado St.	MWC	4.32	4.32	27.59	27.59	-1.94	-1.94
Air Force	MWC	4.31	4.31	29.63	29.63	-1.76	-1.76
Boise St.	MWC	2.78	2.78	72.41	72.41	1.25	1.25
Fresno St.	MWC	2.73	2.73	62.07	62.07	0.66	0.66
San Diego	WCC	1.95	1.95	55.17	55.17	0.20	0.20
Denver	Sum	1.95	1.95	44.44	44.44	-0.22	-0.22
Santa Clara	WCC	1.94	1.94	35.71	35.71	-0.56	-0.56
Portland	WCC	1.92	1.92	21.43	21.43	-1.10	-1.10
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.90	1.90	84.38	84.38	1.31	1.31
Southern Utah	BSky	1.90	1.90	34.48	34.48	-0.59	-0.59
South Dakota	Sum	1.85	1.85	72.41	72.41	0.83	0.83
Idaho St.	BSky	1.81	1.81	44.44	44.44	-0.20	-0.20
Southern Illinois	MVC	1.77	1.77	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Bowling Green	MAC	1.75	1.75	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Pacific	WCC	0.47	0.47	41.94	41.94	-0.08	-0.08
BYU	WCC	0.37	0.37	70.59	70.59	0.15	0.15
Gonzaga	WCC	0.34	0.34	88.24	88.24	0.26	0.26
Pepperdine	WCC	0.31	0.31	16.13	16.13	-0.21	-0.21
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.29	0.29	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.29	0.29	16.67	16.67	-0.19	-0.19
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.28	0.28	61.29	61.29	0.06	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.28	0.28	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.28	0.28	56.25	56.25	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.23	0.23	80.00	80.00	0.14	0.14
Colorado	P12	0.23	0.23	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.21	0.21	83.33	83.33	0.14	0.14
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.15	-0.15
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.20	0.20	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
Portland St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Weber St.	BSky	0.20	0.20	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
Idaho	BSky	0.20	0.20	68.97	68.97	0.07	0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Drake	MVC	0.16	0.16	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.11	0.11	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.24	17.24	-0.07	-0.07
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.09	0.09	14.29	14.29	-0.06	-0.06
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.09	0.09	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arizona St.	P12	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Winthrop	BSth	0.08	0.08	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Tulane	Amer	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01